Monday, 25 August 2008
Climate Change's Potential Transportation Impact Demands Action
A Transportation Research Board committee chaired by ASCE Past President Henry "Gerry" Schwartz has produced a report, Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, which I learned more about recently.
Although engineers have believed that climate change would be a gradual long term process, unfortunately Schwartz's report "suggest[s] that the impacts are going to be more serious and more of a surprise than transportation officials realize." Many of these are exacerbated on days of hot weather and during extended above-normal heat periods. Other problems relate to the potential impact of Arctic temperatures, sea level rise, intense precipitation and possible increases in hurricane intensity. Coastal flooding is another major possibility that could have a significant effect on U.S. transportation infrastructure.
TRB's report presents 14 recommendations. They begin with creating an inventory of critical infrastructure that might be affected by climate change projections. Schwartz presses the need for public and private infrastructure owners to incorporate this analysis in capital and renewal planning. The decision should be based on the current probability of an event, rather than on historic data. The "hundred-year" storm of yesterday may only be today a 50- or 20-year event.
Some examples of rising sea levels combined with storm surges can produce inundated roads, rail lines and runways with significant erosion of road base and bridge supports. The effects of extreme temperature events could include thermal expansion of bridges and paved services and concerns regarding pavement integrity. The report goes on to cite many other examples. You can read TRB's summary of their report here (PDF document.)
Past president Schwartz believes that we may not be 100 percent accurate about the potential threat, but if we wait until we are sure, we may be too late. "Do we want to wait 50 years to find out those guys 50 years ago were dead right? It is better to do something over 50 years and perhaps they weren’t quite right?" he asked.
What is your state agency doing to prepare for potential impacts from global climatic changes?
I would like to credit the National Society of Professional Engineers' PE Magazine as the source of some of the material for this blog.
